基于优化随机森林模型的藏东南地区滑坡主控因子分析及易发性评价

    Main controlling factor analysis and susceptibility assessment of landslides in southeastern Tibet based on optimized random forest model

    • 摘要: 以藏东南地区为研究对象, 通过优化随机森林模型对滑坡易发性进行深入分析, 探讨影响滑坡发生的主要因素.通过现场调查、遥感数据分析和文献综述, 系统筛选了滑坡与非滑坡样本, 并优化了模型的滑坡-非滑坡样本筛选方法、影响因子的选取、联结方法的应用以及超参数的优化.采用非支配排序算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)优化随机森林模型(多目标优化)与RF-GA模型(单目标优化)进行对比分析, 最优准确率、召回率、精确率、F1四项指标较RF-GA模型分别提高了3.3%、8.7%、3.2%、1.9%.在滑坡易发性分区方面, 高、较高、中易发区面积占比分别提升了2.7%、3.1%、1.2%.通过绘制ROC曲线和计算AUC值, 验证了RF-NSGA-Ⅱ模型的高准确性(AUC=0.877).研究结果显示, 藏东南地区的滑坡易发区主要集中在易贡藏布与帕隆藏布的交汇处以及雅鲁藏布江的大拐弯区域.在影响因子的重要性排序中, 距道路距离、高程和距河流距离排名靠前, 地质构造复杂、断层发育密集以及长期构造活动的影响使得这些区域滑坡发育频繁, 特别是在断层纵横交错、岩石破碎和节理发育明显的高易发区域.

       

      Abstract: Taking the southeastern Tibet Region as the research object, the paper analyzes the landslide susceptibility based on optimized random forest(RF) model, and discusses the main influencing factors of landslides. With field survey, remote sensing data analysis and literature review, the study screens the landslide and non-landslide samples systematically, and optimizes the landslide and non-landslide sample screening methods of models, selection of impact factors, application of connection approach and hyperparameters. The random forest model (multi-objective optimization) is optimized by non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ) and compared with RF-GA mode (single objective optimization). The four indexes of optimal accuracy, recall rate, precision rate and F1 are increased by 3.3%, 8.7%, 3.2% and 1.9%, respectively, compared with the RF-GA model. Besides, the high, relatively high and medium susceptible areas increased by 2.7%, 3.1% and 1.2%, respectively, in terms of landslide susceptibility zoning. The high accuracy of RF-NSGA-Ⅱ model is verified (AUC=0.877) by drawing ROC curve and calculating AUC value. The results show that the landslide susceptible areas in southeastern Tibet are mainly concentrated in the intersection of Yigong Zangbo River and Palong Zangbo River and the big bend area of Yarlung Zangbo River. In the importance ranking of landslide impact factors, distance from road, elevation and distance from river take up the top places, as complex geological structures, densely developed faults and influence of long-term tectonic activities cause frequent landslides in such areas, especially in high susceptible areas with criss-crossing faults, broken rocks and developed joints.

       

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